SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

2D/3D Dust Continuum Radiative Transfer Codes to Analyze and Predict VLTI Observations     

I. Pascucci  Th. Henning  J. Steinacker  S. Wolf 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,286(1-2):113-118

Radiative Transfer (RT) codes with image capability are a fundamental tool for preparing interferometric observations and for interpreting visibility data. In view of the upcoming VLTI facilities, we present the first comparison of images/visibilities coming from two 3D codes that use completely different techniques to solve the problem of self-consistent continuum RT. In addition, we focus on the astrophysical case of a disk distorted by tidal interaction with by-passing stars or internal planets and investigate for which parameters the distortion can be best detected in the mid-infrared using the mid-infrared interferometric device MIDI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn     

纪雷  崔鹤  辛淑平  王军  张龙军  陆贤昆 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(2):180-186

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.  相似文献   

基于RDBMS的积件技术的应用研究     

李毅心 《成都信息工程学院学报》2006,21(2):206-209

积件技术是教学软件发展的方向，探讨了用Power Builder前台结合SQL Server关系数据库后台进行多媒体教学积件管理的应用模式，并结合具体教学示例，进行了分析说明。  相似文献   

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models     

Ashu Jain  K. P. Sudheer  Sanaga Srinivasulu 《水文研究》2004,18(3):571-581

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Coma Morphology of Three Non-periodic Comets     

R. Schulz  J. A. Stüwe  C. Erd 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):387-397

The coma morphology and short-term evolution was investigated of three non-periodic comets in retrograde orbits, C/2001 Q4 (NEAT), C/2002 T7 (LINEAR), and C/2003 K4 (LINEAR). All three comets display distinct coma features, which were very different from one comet to the next and remained rather constant in shape during the observational period. A single, broad feature perpendicular to the sun-tail direction dominated the coma of C/2003 K4 in all used filters (B,V,R,I), whereas the coma of Comet C/2002 T7 exhibited different features in blue and red filters. C/2001 Q4 showed rather complex coma morphology with clear short-term variability in coma brightness. Therefore, these non-periodic comets neither show a featureless coma nor any similarities of the features detected. The overall distribution of coma material was investigated from the shape of radial coma profiles averaged around the comet nucleus. For C/2001 Q4 and C/2002 T7, the slopes fitted to the linear part of these profiles are flatter in the blue than in the red, which can be explained by the presence of coma gas. For C/2003 K4 no such difference is indicated in the May observations (r = 2.3 AU), while in July (r = 1.7 AU) the profiles in the B-filter are flatter than in V, R, and I, hence gas contamination was relevant at least in the B filter. The R and I filter images were used to determine approximate Afρ values of each comet as a function of time.  相似文献   

Generalized strain probing of constitutive models     

Youssef M. A. Hashash  Qingwei Fu  Jeremy Butkovich 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(15):1503-1519

Advanced material constitutive models are used to describe complex soil behaviour. These models are often used in the solution of boundary value problems under general loading conditions. Users and developers of constitutive models need to methodically investigate the represented soil response under a wide range of loading conditions. This paper presents a systematic procedure for probing constitutive models. A general incremental strain probe, 6D hyperspherical strain probe (HSP), is introduced to examine rate‐independent model response under all possible strain loading conditions. Two special cases of HSP, the true triaxial strain probe (TTSP) and the plane‐strain strain probe (PSSP), are used to generate 3‐D objects that represent model stress response to probing. The TTSP, PSSP and general HSP procedures are demonstrated using elasto‐plastic models. The objects resulting from the probing procedure readily highlight important model characteristics including anisotropy, yielding, hardening, softening and failure. The PSSP procedure is applied to a Neural Network (NN) based constitutive model. It shows that this probing is especially useful in understanding NN constitutive models, which do not contain explicit functions for yield surface, hardening, or anisotropy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Variabilities of the Soft and Hard X—ray Components of NGC 7314 and NGC 7582 and the Distribution of Absorbing Matter in Type Ⅱ AGNs     

Xiang－HuaZou  Sui－JianXue 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2002,2(4):352-360

ASCA observations of the two Type Ⅱ AGNs,NGC7314 and NGC 7582,show clear variations in the broad X-ray band(0.4-10keV)on short timescales-10^4s.Spectral analysis indicates that they bot have an absorbed hard X-ray component and an unabsorbed soft“excess” component.To clarify the origin of the latter,we made a cross-correlation analysis of the two components.The results show that,for NGC7314,the soft X-ray variability is proportional to that of the hard X-ray component.This indicates that the active nucleus of NGC 7314 must be partially covered and so the soft emission is a “leaking” of the variable hard component.For NGC 7582,there is no detectable variability in the soft component, although there is a definite one in the hard component.This indicates that the variable nucleus of NGC 7582 must be fully blocked by absorbing matter,and the soft emission is most likely the scattered component predicted by the AGN unified model.  相似文献   

Automatic Determination of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Using Neural Networks and Instance-Based Machine Learning     

Olac Fuentes 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):21-31

In this article we show how machine learning methods can beeffectively applied to the problem of automatically predictingstellar atmospheric parameters from spectral information, a veryimportant problem in stellar astronomy. We apply feedforwardneural networks, Kohonen's self-organizing maps andlocally-weighted regression to predict the stellar atmosphericparameters effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicityfrom spectral indices. Our experimental results show that thethree methods are capable of predicting the parameters with verygood accuracy. Locally weighted regression gives slightly betterresults than the other methods using the original dataset asinput, while self-organizing maps outperform the other methods when significant amounts of noise are added. We also implemented a heterogeneous ensemble of predictors, combining the results given by the three algorithms. This ensemble yields better results than any of the three algorithms alone, using both the original and the noisy data.  相似文献   

关于网络用户经济效益评测模型的研究     

岳正华  李黎 《成都信息工程学院学报》2001,16(2):141-144

着重讨论了网络用户经济效益的内涵以及用户的投入量和产出量，并提出了评价网络用户经济效益的指标体系，包括成本降低率，成本利润增长率、产品开发时间约率、市场占有增长率等系列指标。  相似文献